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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/28 11:34

   Traders Show Livestock Complex Little Interest After Thanksgiving Holiday 

   The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Monday afternoon as both 
the cattle and hog markets long for support at the week's start. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst


   The livestock complex is off to a meek start as the market tiptoes into 
Monday's noon hour. With the big advances in last week's cash cattle market, 
one would have thought cattle contracts would be trading higher Monday. 
Meanwhile the lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trend as the market 
longs for demand but is skeptical if it will come or not. December corn is 
steady and January soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 
down 330.73 points.


   As the market heads into the noon hour, the live cattle market isn't seeing 
the support it saw earlier in the day. With last week's $3.00 to $4.50 
advancement in the cash sector, one would suspect the futures market would 
follow its lead and trade higher into the new week. But given that the market 
is coming back from a long holiday weekend, traders could show the market more 
support after they have time to reappraise the entire marketplace. December 
live cattle are down $0.47 at $152.60, February live cattle are down $0.67 at 
$154.45 and April live cattle are down $0.75 at $158.22.

   Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place mostly Wednesday. 
Southern cattle traded for $152 to $155.50, but mostly at $154 to $155, which 
is $3.50 to $4.50 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern 
dressed cattle sold for $243 to $247.50, which was $3.00 higher than the week 
before. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade sold 94,864 head. Of that 85% 
(80,957 head) were committed to nearby delivery, while the remaining 15% 
(13,907 head) were committed for deferred delivery.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $3.00 ($254.83) and select down $1.35 
($233.02) with a movement of 25 loads (18.81 loads of choice, 4.90 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 1.38 loads of ground beef).


   The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market longs for support 
but has come up short thus far Monday. Currently the corn complex is trading 
lower, which thankfully bodes well for the market and its aspiration to trade 
higher. But without support from the live cattle complex, the market is 
struggling to muster up enough technical and fundamental backing to justify 
trading higher. The market will see more feeder cattle sales this week as sale 
barns will likely have an influx as last week most sale barns took the week off 
for the holiday. January feeders are down $0.80 at $177.50, March feeders are 
down $0.42 at $181.12 and April feeders are down $0.22 at $184.90.


   The lean hog complex is keeping with its downward trading trend as the 
market longs for demand but has unfortunately come up short in recent weeks. As 
the bird flu continues to spread throughout the country and affect poultry 
barns, chicken prices will likely continue to rise, which could turn some 
consumers onto pork cuts. Not to mention retailers will be restocking after the 
Thanksgiving buying rush to prepare for Christmas, which could lend the hog 
market the support it's hoping for. It's interesting to see pork cutout values 
up over $9.00 Monday morning, the biggest being the $36.90 jump in the bellies. 
But with cold storage supplies extremely full of bellies, I don't believe we'll 
see the day's closing pork cutout value as drastically high. December lean hogs 
are down $1.35 at $82.45, February lean hogs are down $2.75 at $85.70 and April 
lean hogs are down $2.57 at $91.45.  

   The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices on 
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $81.73, ranging from $80.00 to 
$87.50 on 4,017 head and a five-day rolling average of $81.99. Pork cutouts 
total 146.60 loads with 125.40 loads of pork cuts and 21.20 loads of trim. Pork 
cutout values: up $9.80, $97.43.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com


   Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but 
the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S. 
and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts 
on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full 
details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit

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